Archive for the ‘condos’ Category

The SoCal Real Estate Roller coaster: Here We Go Again

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

California is notorious for its real estate market. And it is also commonly-known that each time the national market and the talking heads declare that the California real estate market “isn’t coming back for quite sometime this time” that it always does come back – and much faster than anyone would think.

The reasons behind L.A. condominium market resiliency in particular are no mystery. California generally has a huge economy – if it were a national economy, it would be one of the 5 biggest in the world. And beyond that, the population of California and Southern California and the Los Angeles area in particular is steadily growing at a rate faster than the rest of the country’s.

A growing population puts demand pressure on supplies and raises prices.

Of course, every now and then prices get ahead of themselves in Southern California, which is why the Los Angeles real estate auctions are busy liquidating thousands of foreclosed homes that were sold to people who couldn’t afford them in the first place or who no longer can because their incomes won’t support it or because they are too underwater to make staying in those homes worthwhile.

But the bustling activity at the Los Angeles real estate auctions is precisely part of the reason why SoCal condominiums’ values aren’t to be doubted. And there are a few catalysts on the horizon that could accelerate the recovery of this perennial boom-bust market.

First, legislation aimed at addressing immigration from Mexico and the rest of Central and South America could legitimize a huge population that would be eager to soak up inventory at the lower end of the market, putting in a substantial floor under the rest of the median-priced market.

Second, economic shifts toward jobs in the internet, semiconductors, green energy, and agriculture all bode well for southern California, whose economy is far less dependent on finance and services than economies like those found in the Northeast (NY, Boston) or Midwest (Chicago).

Third, federal aid to assist California in dealing with its current budget crisis could stimulate the state’s wobbly economy and put demand back on even surer footing.

Every fifteen years, California experiences a real estate bust that pundits swear will damage the market for decades; this one is no different, and though it may not the last, it certainly represents an attractive opportunity.

Condominium Sellers Embrace Auctions

Monday, October 19th, 2009

While auctions have long been touted as a good way for buyers to take advantage of market inefficiencies and desperation selling, sellers are more and more often utilizing auctions as a way to move inventory quickly without the expense or hassle of dealing with brokers.

The market has firmed – that is to say, stabilized – in much of the country, and people looking to live in or invest in property are turning out in substantial numbers at condo real estate auctions and have, consequently, put a floor into many markets’ prices. But auctions, historically reserved for liquidations of developers’ or banks’ foreclosure portfolios, are gaining traction with sellers.

While open market sales with brokers will generally allow sellers to realize higher sale prices in a softer market, in firmer markets, the difference between a seller will get at auction and what a seller will get after a commission sale through a broker is sometimes greater, but more often less enough that the difference is negligible for the peace of mind that comes with having disposed of an unwanted or unaffordable property.

Auctions are run with far lower commissions, and in firmer markets, demand is strong enough among an active investment community that there is actually rational pricing and decent liquidity for housing inventory.

This liquidity and pricing rationality is most frequently found at condo real estate auctions, since there seems to be a consensus that new construction will outperform existing homes in any real estate rebound (not to mention that it is smarter to buy new if it costs the same as buying old because of lower maintenance costs, etc), and that urban areas will turn before suburban areas because demographic and economic trends do not favor as rapid a recovery in suburbia.

While the vast majority of homes sold at auction are part of liquidation, retail sellers looking to sell property quickly are frequently surprised by how well they are able to do at auction, particularly if their property is in a desirable building in a desirable urban market like Chicago.

While there are no guarantees in the auction process, reserve prices protect against any outrageous low-balling, and the frequency of auctions and the consistency of pricing has even given way to a new breed of speculators who flip condos for tiny profit margins at various auctions. For those with a bit of a stomach for risk and a burning desire to sell a condominium quickly, an auction or online auction is worth considering.

Winds of Change Shift Financial Wealth to the Windy City?

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Because condominium buildings were so profitable for developers during the recent real estate boom, many major cities are rife with inventory of shiny new condos without any buyers to call them home. Chicago is no exception.

Peak to trough prices on new constructions here are comparable to other cities, the lower median prices mean than New York or Los Angeles mean that least net worth has been lost in dollar terms. But of all major cities with condo gluts, Chicago may represent the best investment opportunity if you subscribe to the inflation thesis that is driving a lot of today’s real estate buying. This thinking runs roughly as follows.

The quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus enacted by the government in response to the recent financial crisis will, eventually precipitate inflation. This inflation will in part be caused by a weaker dollar – a dollar weakened by a greater supply of printed currency the government will use to pay its debt – and also cause a weaker dollar, as assets priced in dollars will become cheaper to foreigners who will therefore demand them in greater quantity.

This inflation thesis, along with significant declines in housing prices that have created high rent yields and a good risk-reward profile for investors, has driven some of the logic behind smart money real estate buying recently. And elsewhere in this blog we discuss why this trend will be strongest in cities and why investors in urban real estate stand to make the greatest return.

But buyers of condos at Chicago real estate auctions may stand to do better than investors in other urban areas – even in Miami, where the market has seen a ~60% decline – because one of Chicago’s biggest industries is inflation-driven: commodities.

An inflationary environment, combined with new demand for food and energy from emerging markets along with dwindling global water resources set the stage for what many are whispering about as another asset boom connected to inflation.

As a driver of much of the premium real estate buying in Chicago, a big expansion in the commodities trade in the form of a larger work force and higher salaries could put significant upward price pressure on prices that will already be rising because of inflation.

How appropriate then, that one of the best ways to get a good deal on a Chicago condo is by buying one at any of the many Chicago real estate auctions – just like any good commodity trader would want it.

Buying Real Assets Virtually

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

The recent housing crisis  put more condos into foreclosure than the market seemed to know what to do with – until recently, when the smart money began turning up at auctions to buy properties for 50, 60, or sometimes even 70 percent less than original asking price. But who has the time or local expertise to work the courthouse auction circuit?

Online real estate auctions provide a convenient way for retail buyers and investors in condominium properties – some foreclosures and others just inventory that developers or sellers are looking to move in a hurry – to bid on them without having to buy through a broker or moonlight as auction-goers.

Today’s online real estate auctions operate just like conventional auctions except in that the bidding takes place online, either live or through an agent. Most often, a list of properties is provided in advance so that prospective buyers can take a look at the properties in person or else send their own private appraiser.

The most experienced investors are sometimes satisfied merely through an online tour, though it is recommended that anyone see a property in person before bidding. Come auction day, bidders can place maximum bids that will be automatically entered or else they can bid live as they see the bidding action unfold.

There are certainly merits to each form of bidding. The former method is more convenient for would-be bidders and also ensures that emotion does not get the best of bidders – i.e., that they don’t find themselves extricated in a bidding war. The second approach, however, has its practitioners, who like to get a sense of the market and see how much comparable condominiums have gone for in the same auction as a basis for setting their bids.

Regardless of how one chooses to participate in an online auction, the format represents an easy and effective way to buy a home or invest in income-producing property. And because auctions are representative of a much smaller market of buyers than the overall real estate market, there is opportunity for buyers to make out with even better deals than the current market provides.

Sellers also appreciate the format since there are lower commissions, so even if he or she gets 5% less than an official asking price, lower commissions will make up for the difference and allow them to dispose of the property more quickly than if it were left on the open market.

The Case for Buying Condos in NYC

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

On a stroll down Third Avenue on Manhattan’s Upper East Side just four years ago, it was hard to fathom that so many cranes could be crammed into just a few square miles.

Everywhere, small building owners were being bought out at unheard-of prices so their buildings could be razed to make room for new condo towers. Fast forward to today; all of those shiny new highrises are built, and yet there are more sellers than there are buyers of these gorgeous condos – buyers who were tempted by pre-construction incentive pricing that was a steal when the market was accelerating upwards almost as quickly as the new constructions.

Layoffs all around New York and tanking real estate prices deflated prices on the average 2 bedroom NYC condo somewhere between 20-30%, depending on the neighborhood. And while the case for buying four years ago was strong, the case for buying today really is stronger than ever.

First, while prices have fallen 20-30%, rents have fallen only 10-15%; this disparity translates into higher rent yields for investors looking to earn income on an asset that has potential for serious appreciation as well.

Second, existing inventory will be quickly consumed. Bank profits show signs of returning to record levels. And recent grads are flocking to urban markets – markets like New York where there are still signs of economic life.

Third, existing inventory levels are only so high because developers have to make their panicky investors as close to whole as possible ASAP so those investors can redeploy their capital elsewhere. That flood of inventory has artificially depressed prices, providing an attractive opportunity for those with the means to get in “on the ground floor” of a rebound in NYC real estate.

Fourth, the prevalence of New York real estate auctions means that there is good pricing data for investment analysis and good liquidity (i.e., speculators welcome). Auctions also offer the opportunity for patient and savvy investors to pick up premium property and discount prices.

Buying a property to live in or as an investment can be anxiety-producing. But intuitively, would-be buyers should ask themselves whether they would rather buy mediocre property that is accelerating in value at historically unheard-of rates (2002-2007, which led to the bust) or whether they would rather buy premium property that has depreciated at historically unheard-of rates and is showing signs of bottoming (now).

Those with the courage to do what other aren’t should find their way to the New York real estate auctions and seize this opportunity while the getting is good.

‘Foreclosed’ for Some Translates to ‘Opportunity’ for Others

Sunday, October 11th, 2009

The recent housing crash seems something like a modern-day “Trail of Tears.” Millions of Americans forced out of their homes for failing to make payments on assets they couldn’t afford to begin with or can no longer afford because they have lost their jobs.

It is a tragedy whose plot line is lived every day by thousands of Americans. The suffering inflicted by short sales and foreclosures on a daily basis is incalculable.

Thankfully, it appears that the acceleration in foreclosures has finally stopped and that the trend is reversing, even amid an economy bleeding jobs. This is in no small part attributable to to the savvy investors and  first-time home-buyers who have put a floor in the market by absorbing housing inventory through real estate auctions.

More bearish market commentators claim that recent good news in housing and foreclosures will be undermined once banks fully disclose the number of foreclosed homes they own – homes which haven’t yet come up for sale. They will be proven wrong. Recent attendance of real estate auctions – whether virtual or in-person – is at a record peak. In fact, some housing experts argue that recent signs of price improvement in certain markets is attributable to the high demand for homes that is being witnessed at these auctions.

And why shouldn’t there be high demand? Prices in many desirable areas have fallen more than 50% from peak to trough, putting rental yields on properties – hard assets – well above the yields investors are homeowners might find on bonds, which can’t be lived in.

Urban condominium properties in particular represent a compelling opportunity for buyers or investors. First, urban markets are most likely to benefit in an inflationary environment, as foreigners purchase second and third homes to take advantage of a weak dollar.

Second, urban areas will experience an accelerated recovery versus other areas, as urban center will likely fuel  the job creation that puts the economy back on track.

Third, prices in some cities like Miami and L.A.  have been hardest hit because of the tremendous short-term overcapacity built by developers who now need to exit their projects as quickly as possible to make their own bondholders whole again. And fourth – call us partial – urban markets may just be more fun to live in.

While the recent downturn in housing has had a negative impact on many peoples’ lives, there are signs of real improvement. This improvement is provided by the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for buyers to scoop up plush penthouses at bargain basement prices.

Urban Markets to Benefit from Weak Dollar

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Whether or not the government’s response to the financial crisis and the recession was appropriate, one thing is pretty much certain: with the federal deficit at a record high and showing no signs of decelerating, the Treasury will have to print a lot of dollars to make good on those debts, inevitably putting downward pressure on the dollar and leading to inflation.

These conditions are significant and create a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity for real estate buyers and investors. Those who buy condos at condo auctions will benefit – even through a protracted recession – in a number of ways.

First, buying at auction provides buyers the opportunity to buy properties for well below even current market values, giving them a substantial cushion on their investment. Next, the historically low interest rates employed by the Fed as a response to the recession has created cheap money for those with good credit and good jobs with which to buy assets.

When inflation is finally realized and the dollar weakens as bills roll off the press, today’s buyers will be rewarded with an asset that will appreciate as foreign investors seek investments and second and third resident’s in our country’s desirable urban markets – a trend that was observed during the last housing boom. In addition, a protracted recession and increased unemployment will force more Americans to rent in the near-term, especially in job-creating urban markets.

With rental yields on urban properties at near-record lows, there is little downside risk to rental rates and a very bullish case to be made for rent increases – increases that translate into higher yields and much higher returns on an a good investment.

Signs of a bottom in housing are beginning to emerge. New home sales are up for the last three months. Prices have increased in urban markets. And major housing economists have turned bullish. Once the evidence is too compelling, the opportunity to buy great properties at steep discounts at condo auctions will have passed. Those who are most handsomely rewarded will be rewarded for taking risks before the rest of the herd.

Buying at auction is easier than most would imagine. A list of properties is usually published well in advance and open houses are held so that bidders can inspect the properties first-hand. When an auction date is set, bidders can place maximum bids so that they need not bid live, or bid live in person or online (depending on whether the auction is live or online).

How to Invest in a Real Estate Rebound

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

For decades – and especially the last decade – investors seeking income have been advised to allocate a portion of their assets to real estate. After all, real estate offers a relatively high level of income (up to a 15% rental yield in some locations) and – as a hard asset – offers at very least some protection of principal.

In recent years, investors often sought diversification into real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), since owning actual properties outright was too expensive for the average retiree or income investor.
Bubble-era housing prices and the low interest rates that fueled them made it more attractive than ever for developers to build condos all around this country, but a recent decline in households’ net worth, coupled with tighter lending standards, has made it harder than ever for developers to sell their properties. This bust for lenders has been a boon for savvy investors.

By employing a real estate auction company, savvy investors are able to pick up condominiums in desirable locations like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles for sometimes less than half of their original asking price.
And the case for buying condo properties now is compelling for many reasons. First, as an income-producing asset, real estate is almost unrivaled, since income can be realized in perpetuity (or until the building collapses) – try getting that yield with a bond!

Second, the prices that many investors are paying through a real estate auction company often augment those yields and account for a good deal of greater downside in the market. Third, as a hard asset, real estate will outperform bonds or cash in an inflationary environment. And fourth, real estate is useful – it can be used as a residence. What high-yielding stock provides walls and central air?
Joking aside, most metropolitan real estate markets have taken huge hits, but there are some signs of stabilizing. The buyers who will make the most money in an inevitable long-term rebound in real estate are those that are willing to stick their necks out early.

Owning a condo offers an alternative to owning a soft-asset REIT for diversification and has the added bonus of being a hard asset that investors can live in or pass on to children, grandchildren, etc, and the ability to buy at auction offers the opportunity to get away with paying prices that – years from now – will seem impossibly low.

Making Lemonade from Housing Market’s Lemons

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” The Oracle of Omaha has lived and profited by this credo for decades – enough to make him a perennial contender for the world’s richest man.

Taking this to heart in November or March, stock market investors stood to earn a return of over 60% in just 6-9 short months – the return of a lifetime – as stocks rebounded from from a 50% retraction. But alas, that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity came and went. Luckily, there are likely more opportunities like these on the horizon.

While the big picture of the present state of the economy has made many would-be investors fearful, the savviest investors are being greedy amid other people’s fear. (more…)

Condos

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

To put it simply a condo is a form of home ownership in which individual units of a larger complex are purchased, not rented.  They may be commercial warehouses, townhouses, converted apartment buildings or newly constructed buildings designed specifically as condominiums.  The word condominium does not apply to the unit itself but how the unit is held legally.  Those who purchase a condo technically own everything from the walls inward and individual condo owners have shared rights for the areas such as hallways, grounds, pools, clubhouses, and elevators.  The maintenance of these common areas is usually the responsibility of the condominium association.  Each owner shares a common interest and has an obligation to pay monthly dues or special assessment fees.

Condo ownership many times is the best option for potential homeowners.  If you would like to have a pool, playground area, clubhouse or many of the other amenities a condo offers then buying into a complex with all of these is your best choice.  You just need to remember you are paying for these with your association fees and there will be others who use these facilities also.  Most veteran apartment dwellers benefit from buying a condo because they are used to having neighbors close by and using the same amenities with others.  Normally the overall price of a condominium is less than single family homes but still allows equity to build so it is no different in regards to recouping costs assuming the property will appreciate.

Before you run out to buy that condominium there are several things you need to consider.  Find out if the building has a good reputation.  Ask current residents how often repairs and maintenance are done and remember the association decides what is done and at what cost to each of the members.  Check out parking and security arrangements before you buy especially if you have multiple cars or are concerned about your own well being.  Another area to consider is budgeting in the association dues.  When you are thinking of buying a condo you will know what your mortgage payments will be but an added unexpected fee could strain your budget to the breaking point. 

Condo living is not for everyone but can be advantageous financially since you now own your own home.  You are able to enjoy many of the amenities normally not affordable with ownership of a single family home.  You have the pride of ownership and a financial investment that will pay off future dividends.